International Energy Agency: Yearly Energy Outlook

Mr Fletcher asked the Minister for Resources and Energy, in writing, on 7 February 2012:

In respect of the Yearly Energy Outlook issued in November 2011 by the International Energy Agency, can he provide the advice he has received from his department or elsewhere concerning the report and its implications for peak oil; if so, what was it.

Mr Martin Ferguson: The answer to the honourable member's question is as follows:

My Department has advised me that the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2011 estimates that global conventional oil production will move from 70.4 million barrels/day (mb/d) in 2008 to plateau at around 69 mb/d for a number of years and move to 68 mb/d by 2035.

The IEA maintains that production of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil will continue to grow strongly and therefore total global oil production is not expected to peak before the end of the WEO forecast period, which goes out to 2035.