The Gillard government's Fiscal Strategy

When it comes to matters of economic management, this government's capacity for self-congratulation is apparently limitless. We have this loyal apparatchik, the member for Throsby, putting forward this motion congratulating in extravagant terms his colleagues on their economic management. I was reminded of Winston Smith, the protagonist in Nineteen Eighty-Four, who in the late stages of that novel, after he has been broken, sits there cheering the fact that they are at war with Oceania—or was it Eurasia—and running the party line.

That is what we have got this evening. We have got this government's relentless capacity to congratulate itself on economic achievements which have not yet been achieved. Day after day the Treasurer comes into this chamber and congratulates himself on a return to surplus which has not happened and shows no indication of happening for at least the next year and we are supposed to believe it is going to happen the following year.

 It puts me in mind in Stephen Holland. Remember Stephen Holland, the Superfish, who was going to win the gold medal in the 1,500 metres in 1976? I remember being trouped down in primary school to watch this one event in the 1976 Olympics that Australia was going to win. On the Wayne Swan model, Stephen Holland, the Superfish, would have been congratulating himself for several years that he had won the gold medal. But he did not win it; he won the bronze medal. On the Wayne Swan model where you congratulate yourself for your achievement before you actually deliver it, Mr Dewey, the presidential candidate who was famously shown in the Chicago Tribune headline as having won the presidential election against Truman, would have been congratulating himself for several years—'I've won. I am the president.' But in fact he had not won. Yet on the Wayne Swan model you congratulate yourself on the surplus before you actually deliver it. Who can forget Mr Scott, who thought he was going to be the first to the South Pole. But he wasn't; he did not get to the South Pole first because Mr Amundsen the Norwegian got there first. Mr Scott never got to the South Pole first. Of course, on the Wayne Swan model, he would have been congratulating himself—'I got to the South Pole first.'

We have a government here which has a track record of congratulating itself on economic performance without actually delivering the performance. I am also reminded of the prayer of Saint Augustine: Lord make me pure, but not just yet. What could better summarise the approach of Wayne Swan to deficits? Wayne Swan tells us: 'I know deficits are bad; unfortunately in 2008-09 we had a deficit. I know deficits are bad; unfortunately in 2009-10 we had a deficit. I know deficits are bad; unfortunately in 2010-11 we have got a deficit. Lord make me pure, but not just yet. I will not be pure in 2011-12 either, but in 2012-13 I will be pure. I will deliver a surplus.' It is this self-congratulatory approach to economic management, quite unsubstantiated by performance, quite unsubstantiated by the facts, which is replete in this motion this evening.

This motion is about as pure an example of a non sequitur as you will ever see. We are told, firstly, that Australia has unemployment of five per cent—premise No. 1. We are told that Australia's debt-to-GDP ratio is low—premise No. 2. And then we are given the conclusion that this is because of the marvellous economic management of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan. That is a textbook example of a non sequitur. A non sequitur is a rhetorical structure in which the conclusion does not follow from the premise. And I will tell you one thing: it certainly does not follow as a conclusion that the reason we have a low debt-to-GDP ratio is that Wayne Swan and Julia Gillard have their hands on the economic levers. We have a low debt-to-GDP for one reason and one reason only: John Howard and Peter Costello were managing the economy of this country for 11 years and in 2006-07 they handed over an economy that was in fantastic and world-beating shape. Unfortunately, the vandals are inside the gate and they have been remorselessly trashing the economy ever since.

Debate adjourned.